Game over. We knew from the beginning how this was going to end. To anyone growing up behind the Iron Curtain, it was crystal clear that Ukraine had no chance against Russia. Power projection is just one of the reasons. More importantly, how strong is the resolve of the belligerents? For Russia, the conflict is existential; for Ukraine – not so much; and for NATO, not at all. Let me explain.
Ukraine-Russia
Russians and Ukrainians have been living as neighbors for centuries and will continue to do so. Russians view Ukrainians as a brotherly nation, even though not all Ukrainians share the reciprocal sentiment. After the 2013 Maidan, the Ukrainian military has been targeting the ethnic Russian population in southeastern Ukraine. So, if your younger brother comes home and, in a substance-induced frenzy, threatens to kill your whole family, do you have the right to restrain him and reduce his ability to do so? Moreover, the current Ukrainian leadership has expressed regret over giving up its nuclear weapons in 1994. Some have even suggested that rearming Ukraine with nukes may be an option.[1] Unless you are trying to start WWIII, why would this be desirable?
In another major development during the last decade, Ukraine has banned the most popular church in the country.[2] It has confiscated many churches and physically assaulted priests and even high-ranking metropolitan clergy.[3] The attack on religious freedom in Ukraine is not coincidental. There is also a ban on foreign languages in Ukraine, which exempts English and EU languages, but effectively bans Russian,[4] which is the most widely spoken language after Ukrainian. Endorsing one official language or religion is qualitatively different from banning another language or religion, which does not bode well for democracy. Even the most pro-Ukrainian outlets admit that Ukraine has experienced a 29% decline in its index of democracy.[5] So, who are we trying to fool by portraying Ukraine as a beacon of Madisonian democracy protecting Western civilization against the invading barbaric hordes?
NATO-Russia
While NATO countries have been arming Ukraine to defend its alleged democracy, the effects have been that Ukrainians and Russians have been slaughtering each other. In line with the family metaphor above, if you are a responsible father, seeing your two children fight, would you encourage them to bludgeon each other to death, or would you separate them immediately? To some, apparently, weakening their adversary by killing Russians was “the best money the US has spent”[6]. But what about the generation of Ukrainian men who have been killed or wounded? In the name of what exactly? For the North Atlantic Alliance, the war between Russia and Ukraine is not existential, because even after Ukraine, NATO will find another adventure to justify its existence. Yet, the conflict is of geostrategic importance for NATO because it weakens Russia, at least in theory. In practice, however, Russia perceives the continued enlargement of NATO as a betrayal of the post-Cold War agreements with the West. The famous “not one inch eastward”[7] turned into 600 miles and 16 countries. Western decision-makers have long been aware of Russia’s red line regarding NATO membership for Ukraine[8], but proceeded to cross that line repeatedly.
Furthermore, Russia regards the conflict in Ukraine as twofold because of its ethnic and socio-cultural component. We can debate the merits of the following claim, but Russia considers itself the rightful owner of several regions in southeastern Ukraine. They are populated by ethnic Russians who speak Russian and were a part of the Russian Empire. Thus, Russia uses this as a pretext to protect its people. After the conflict started in Ukraine, many Ukrainians have fled the country. Yet, not all went west. Quite a few Ukrainians found asylum in Russia,[9] which is a testament to their stronger affinity for Russia than for NATO countries. Newly independent Ukraine at the collapse of the USSR had a population of about 52 million, which has now been reduced by half or so.[10] Ukraine is trying to get its people back, both to conscript them in the military and to rebuild the country,[11] but how many Ukrainians will actually return is uncertain.
EU-Russia
After the 2014 coup in Ukraine, the EU became the biggest cheerleaders to American regime change operations. The Europeans did not even object to the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines, which severely limited EU’s energy sources and increased energy prices, on top of the severe environmental impact of the explosion.[12] Since the disastrous Trump-Zelensky talks, Washington’s appetite for involvement in Ukraine seems to have been lost. Yet, having advocated arming Ukraine at their own economic disadvantage, the European lap dog bureaucrats now do not know who to wag their tail for. A sudden shift in policy would force EU leaders to answer for their past decisions. Economically, the EU is dependent on Russia, and it has suffered terribly from the sanctions it imposed on Russian energy.[13] But ideologically, some members of the EU have been dreaming about breaking up Russia and are still vehemently committed to not waking up from that dream.[14] For now, it seems, the EU has been sidelined and will likely be excluded from peace negotiations between the USA and Russia. Meanwhile, property values are increasing in Ukraine,[15] which is a sign that peace is near.
Roman Krastev, Ph.D.
In the end, at the cost of many lives, Russia is gaining territory. Ukraine, at the cost of many more lives, is losing it. Whatever remains of Ukraine will most likely become a neutral buffer zone between Russia and the West. Ukraine’s NATO aspirations have been a dream to some, but a nightmare to others. Russia and the USA emerge as the winners; Ukraine and the EU – as the losers. So, was it worth it?[16] I guess it depends on whom you ask.
Dr. Roman Krastev is an assistant professor in the Political Science Department at Prairie View A&M University.
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[1] Are nuclear weapons an option for Ukraine? https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2025/02/are-nuclear-weapons-an-option-for-ukraine/
[2] Ukraine bans the Ukrainian Orthodox Church https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/08/zapret-upc-v-ukraine?lang=en
[3] Metropolitan injured https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2024/25-october/news/world/metropolitan-of-moscow-linked-ukrainian-orthodox-church-injured-in-attack
[4] Russian language ban https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/19/new-language-requirement-raises-concerns-ukraine
[5] Ukraine democracy decrease 2006-2024 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/democracy-index-eiu?tab=table®ion=Europe
[6] Lindsey Graham to Zelensky: https://www.the-independent.com/tv/us-news/lindsey-graham-zelensky-russia-meeting-b2347305.html
[7] NATO Expansion: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early
[8] Putin at 43rd Munich Security Conference: https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/12/AR2007021200555.html
[9] Where did Ukrainian refugees go https://geographical.co.uk/news/what-countries-are-ukrainian-refugees-going-to
[10] Ukraine’s demographic catastrophe https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2023-07-11/ukraine-face-a-demographic-catastrophe
[11] Ukraine trying to get refugees back https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-refugee-back-home-germany-war-russia-oleksiy-chernyshov/
[12] Nord Stream impact https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-47290-7
[13] EU buying Russian oil and gas despite sanctions https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/03/05/has-europe-spent-more-on-russian-oil-and-gas-than-aid-to-ukraine-as-trump-claims
[14] Preparing for the breakup of Russia https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/after-fall-must-we-prepare-breakup-russia
[15] Ukrainian property values increasing https://businessukraine.ua/2025-preview-kyiv-real-estate-market-awaits-potential-peace-dividend/
[16] War increases revenue for arms dealers https://responsiblestatecraft.org/war-profiteering/